Climate risk analysis ASFINAG 2025

Article by

Verena Brand

Marketing & Communications Manager

Reading Time 5 min

Background

ASFINAG is the operator of the Austrian motorway and expressway network and is responsible for the planning, construction, operation, tolling and maintenance of one of the country’s most important critical infrastructures.

Climate change is increasingly presenting ASFINAG with new challenges in the operation and maintenance of its transport infrastructure. In order to be able to systematically assess the expected change in climate-related risks over the next 75 years, ASFINAG initiated a proof-of-concept for climate risk analysis together with BC Consulting. The aim was to jointly develop and test a practical methodology that conforms to taxonomy. Existing risk management documents from ASFINAG as well as relevant climate risk reports were taken into account. The developed methodology was then tested and validated in practice together with a selected motorway maintenance department.

Approach

In the project, a climate risk analysis was methodologically redeveloped and tested together with ASFINAG in a proof-of-concept at a motorway maintenance depot. The focus was on a practical approach and later scalability to the entire ASFINAG road network.

Project initiation and goal definition

Joint clarification of the objectives, scope and requirements for a climate risk analysis, taking into account regulatory, strategic and operational framework conditions.

Development of the methodology

Joint development of a structured climate risk analysis based on existing ASFINAG risk management documents, national climate reports and recognised risk management standards.

Definition of risk scenarios

Definition and description of relevant climate risk scenarios including time horizons, assessment criteria, thresholds and weightings to ensure comparability.

Implementation Proof-of-Concept

Joint application of the methodology with a selected motorway maintenance department including evaluation of the scenarios for several route sections and time periods.

Analysis and validation of results

Joint evaluation of the results, derivation of findings and identification of potential for improvement in methodology and evaluation logic

The climate risk analysis was carried out using the bcRISK module in the BCM suite bcNAVIGATOR . bcRISK supported the structured recording of the scenarios, the consistent evaluation over all time horizons, the derivation of current and future measures as well as the transparent evaluation and documentation of the results.

bcNAVIGATOR, the software solution for the entire BCM process. Our modular software supports you exactly where you need it – modern, intuitive and audit-proof. So that you can concentrate on the essentials. A Modern BCM Must Also Be Digital. Only with the right system support can complex dependencies, processes and requirements be clearly recorded, maintained and retrieved in an emergency. At the same time, regulatory requirements are increasing: be it legal requirements, industry-specific standards or internal compliance guidelines.

Challenges

A key challenge was to make climate-related risks with a long-term time horizon methodologically tangible and at the same time assessable for operations. In addition, different empirical values, data sources and existing risk logics had to be brought together consistently. Another challenge was that the absolute risk values were low overall, but changed significantly over the periods under consideration and therefore had to be interpreted together.

Bringing together existing risk management approaches with climate risks
Assessing long-term risks with limited historical data
Comparability between different sections of the route
Dealing with low absolute risk values
Derivation of sensible future measures

The identified challenges could be addressed through the close joint approach and translated into valuable insights for the further development of the methodology.

Insights

The proof-of-concept showed that the jointly developed methodology provides a reliable basis for the systematic assessment of future climate risks. At the same time, valuable insights were gained to further optimize threshold values, weightings and scenarios and make them more practicable.

Uniform scenario descriptions increase the comparability and quality of the assessments across different sections and time periods.
Currently, the climate risks to infrastructure and its operation are at a low level, but significant increases must be expected over the next few decades.
The developed methodology enables a consistent assessment of climate-related risks over short-, medium- and long-term time horizons.
The application of the methodology proved to be practical and easy to understand for the operational unit, even in complex infrastructure and climate contexts.
The structured presentation of results supports strategic decisions and creates transparency for management and further expansion stages of the analysis.

Solution

Based on the results of the proof-of-concept, concrete solutions were jointly developed to further sharpen the climate risk analysis and enable a later efficient roll-out.

Further development of the methodology

On the basis of the PoC results, threshold values, weightings and scenario descriptions will be further developed in order to map climate-related changes in a more consistent, comparable and comprehensible way.

Structured roll-out approach

The knowledge gained will be used to define a step-by-step and standardised procedure with which the climate risk analysis can be transferred efficiently and comparably to other motorway maintenance depots.

Centralized tool support

With bcRISK , a uniform digital platform was used that enables structured recording, consistent assessment and transparent evaluation of climate risks across all organizational units.

Derivation of future measures

The analysis results form the basis for the systematic identification and documentation of preventive and adaptive measures, which can be evaluated and further developed across scenarios.

Conclusion

In the joint proof-of-concept for climate risk analysis, a practical and taxonomy-compliant methodology was developed and successfully tested. Thanks to the close cooperation between ASFINAG and BC Consulting, it was possible to combine existing risk management approaches, climate reports and operational experience in a meaningful way. The results not only provide transparency about climate-related risks, but also create a reliable basis for strategic decisions. On the basis of the knowledge gained, the climate risk analysis will now be gradually rolled out to other motorway maintenance depots and anchored in ASFINAG’s risk management in the long term.

“The joint proof-of-concept has shown how climate-related risks can be assessed in a structured, comparable and future-oriented manner. The methodology developed forms a reliable basis for systematically anchoring climate change in ASFINAG’s risk management and gradually rolling it out across the entire motorway and expressway network.”

Ing. Heinz-Christian Brünner ,
Expert Process, Project and Crisis Management (PPK), ASFINAG